Japan faces power struggle

Targets in doubt as fossil fuels are in the forefront in the struggle for the demand for electricity.With nuclear power plants by action, Japan find no way reduce carbon dioxide emissions and avoid the blackouts still?Lee Jin man/AP

The disaster in the Japanese Fukushima nuclear power plant has ambitious plans to reduce the CO2 emissions under heavy pressure of the country. With few natural resources, Japan has forced long has been on imports of oil, coal and natural gas to about 80% of the energy required, leave it to maintain its economy. Nuclear energy is intended to help, Japan limit this energy imports and cut its CO2 emissions at the same time - but that was before Fukushima.

The Government has committed itself, reduce carbon emissions by 25% State from 1990 to 2020, and to about 80% level of 1990 by the year 2050. The short-term aim is very ambitious, optimized economy already among the most energy-efficient in the world because Japanese. His goals to achieve, Japan, nine nuclear power plants over the next decade and a total of 14 plants by 2030, planned build, at same time squeezing as much energy as possible from the current 54 plants. Was half of Japan's electricity by 2030, nuclear power, double its current contribution to available provided (see "nuclear power in Japan").

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Now hangs a large question mark over these plans. Almost, magnitude 9.0 and the tsunami that followed, still the reactors at Fukushima control workers fight a month after the earthquake. Four of the six reactors were destroyed it; the other two run probably never again; and plans for two new reactors were abandoned (see page 146). Another eight reactors in the Northwest of the country's earthquake were closed after the March 11 automatically. The Tokyo electric power company (TEPCO), Japan's largest private utility, which operates Fukushima Daiichi and three other nuclear power plants with several reactors, is fighting demand for electricity in Tokyo. Japan's vulnerability was highlighted again on 7 April when a magnitude 7.1 earthquake temporarily shut down several conventional power plants and left millions without electricity.

No one will know when to stabilize the situation, or what will be Japan's nuclear industry when it does. Although several power companies say they will stick, project schedules, to achieve the nuclear capacity objectives, the Japanese Government has ordered a review of its energy policy. "they obviously a predicament have, as they have brought many eggs in the basket makes nuclear," says Ed Lyman a nuclear expert with the Union of concerned scientists "it is hard to imagine that Fukushima is not, in order to disturb these plans in Washington DC.".

The immediate challenge is to achieve the country's electricity needs. The rolling blackouts introduced, after the start of the crisis have ceased, thanks to reduced demand and energy conservation measures. But enough power supply is difficult, because Japan two essentially non-compliant managed electricity grids, a decision more than a century. These grids are alternating current at different frequencies, preventing large-scale diversion of electricity from plants outside the affected region. There are no plans to unify the systems.

In the short term, most experts agree that the crisis much more leave will force Japan on the natural gas-fired power plants, and possibly their coal-fired plants. But increasingly fossil probably won't stop Japan of meeting your short-term CO2 emissions commitment under the Kyoto Protocol - 6% below the level from 1990 to 2012 - says Lisa Zelljadt, a senior analyst at the energy consulting of Thompson Reuters point carbon in Washington DC.

Japan's emissions have increased significantly since 1990, so that the country has worked to offset much of their emissions by paying for reductions in other countries. "The only way that they were going to make their Kyoto obligations was the purchase of carbon credits," says Robert Stavins, an economist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Japan also a little closer moved toward their targets during the great depression, rush economic reduce of emissions by 7% from 2007 to 2008 Edition. The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis will also help curb carbon output.

Put all of these factors should be Japan able to meet its Kyoto commitments, says Zelljadt. "The nuclear disaster will thus affect more like Japan is a longer-term objective in international negotiations", she says.

In a move towards not only carbon-free energy, but also self-sufficient in energy, Japan had outlined ambitious plans to develop an advanced nuclear energy program, which not only recycle spent nuclear fuel would also fast - neutron, which produce more fuel than they (see nature 464 burn provide), 661; (2010).

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These efforts are a key part of Japan's climate strategy, but they were the under pressure even before the earthquake. Japanese Rokkasho reprocessing plant has suffered numerous problems and some 15 years behind the schedule back, if it is planned in the year 2012 as currently open. The plant stores thousands of tonnes of spent nuclear fuel, and to build on backup diesel generators the fuel cooling after the plant makes lost last week big aftershock after.

In the meantime a prototype fast - breeder reactor - synchronized Monju - was plagued with problems (see nature 434, 6; 2005). Fifteen years after a sodium coolant leak and related fire their closure led to shut Monju briefly only to once again down in 2010 after a non-nuclear accident operation are taken.

"It's a pretty gloomy story anywhere you see in Japan," Lyman says. "You may have regarding how many nuclear error they endure before the towel."

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